Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, has experienced a month of relatively stable prices.
Decen Trader a prominent figure in the crypto space, suggests that market dynamics will soon respond to the impending block subsidy halving.
Filbfilb, CEO and co-founder of DecenTrader, provides a roadmap for Bitcoin’s price movements in the upcoming months.
Notably, he foresees a surge in buying activity around two months before the anticipated halving date, currently slated for April 18.
However, he also warns of a potential “sell the news event,” reminiscent of the market reactions seen during the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January.
The Bitcoin halving is expected to occur approximately 75 days from now, on April 18, 2024.
Filbfilb emphasizes the importance of considering buying interest, projecting it to materialize no later than six weeks before the halving, placing it around the second week of March.
With this timeline in mind, Bitcoin has about 30 days to navigate through its corrective phase before the anticipated surge in FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) demand.
The excitement among speculators could potentially drive BTC/USD to its current two-year high of $49,000 before a subsequent sell-off resembling the ETF launch events.
Following the initial buying frenzy and the potential sell-off, Filbfilb envisions a path opening up for price discovery before the end of 2024.
Comparisons are drawn to Bitcoin’s previous halving in 2020, where a similar pattern emerged.
It is highlighted that Bitcoin tends to precede the sell-the-news phenomenon with a halving, cautioning investors to bear this in mind.
Post-halving, Bitcoin historically takes 220 to 240 days to reach new all-time highs.
Filbfilb expects a parallel outlook, with Bitcoin potentially reaching new all-time highs in mid to late Q4 of 2024, allowing for a correction period to test investors’ resolve.
The timing of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations in the coming months poses challenges for traders, especially in Q1.
Beyond Bitcoin-specific factors, macroeconomic and geopolitical hurdles are identified as potential sources of wider risk-asset turbulence.
Concerns include weaknesses in the United States banking system, which some experts, including former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, anticipate coming to a head in March.
Additionally, there are divergent opinions on when a new all-time high for BTC/USD might occur, with some projecting it not happen until the end of 2025.
Filbfilb expresses scepticism towards the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s potential for new all-time highs ahead of the halving, cautioning against the belief that “it’s different this time.”
He emphasizes the presence of a remarkably accurate market cycle schematic for Bitcoin, rooted in the emotions of investors emotionally attached to the asset class.
Filbfilb considers it unwise to expect a favourable break from this established market cycle.