Real estate experts are cautious about predicting a housing market crash similar to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis
National home prices peaked in June 2022 despite rising mortgage rates and declining purchase applications
Home prices dropped by over 5% from the peak in January but returned to a record high by July
Bank of America's economists, led by Jeseo Park, are concerned about "turbulence" in the housing market due to high mortgage rates, drawing parallels with the 1980s rather than 2008
Unlike the 2008 crisis, there are no noticeable signs of excess housing development today, and households have less mortgage debt relative to their disposable income
New legislation has reduced the prevalence of risky adjustable-rate mortgages, which were a major factor in the 2008 crash
Bank of America's experts do not expect another housing crash like 2008 based on the current market conditions and data
Today's housing market resembles the early 1980s when interest rates were aggressively raised to combat inflation, leading to a recession
Demographics play a significant role, with millennials entering the prime homebuying age, similar to the favorable conditions with baby boomers in the 1980s
While Bank of America anticipates near-term challenges due to higher mortgage rates, they believe that as inflation subsides and interest rates are cut, housing affordability will improve, leading to a more stable market in the future