On Wednesday, the Union Cabinet of India approved a transformative initiative named “Mission Mausam” aimed at enhancing the country’s ability to predict and respond to extreme weather events and climate change impacts. The mission, backed by a substantial allocation of Rs 2,000 crore for its first phase, is set to run until March 2026. This ambitious project signifies a major step forward in addressing the challenges posed by India’s complex weather patterns and the increasing unpredictability brought about by climate change.
Understanding Mission Mausam
Mission Mausam is a strategic and comprehensive program designed to bolster India’s meteorological and climatic forecasting capabilities. The initiative’s primary objectives are to improve the accuracy of short to medium-range weather forecasts, enhance air quality predictions in major metro cities, and advance the understanding of complex weather patterns and climate processes.
One of the fundamental goals of Mission Mausam is to tackle the current challenges in tropical weather forecasting. The Ministry of Earth Sciences has highlighted that forecasting tropical weather remains a formidable challenge due to the intricacies of atmospheric processes and limitations in existing observation and model resolution. Currently, observational data is sparse both spatially and temporally, and the horizontal resolution of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models is limited to 12 kilometers. This resolution hinders the accurate forecasting of small-scale weather events, which are critical for effective weather management and disaster preparedness.
Why Mission Mausam is Needed
India’s diverse climatic and geographical features make its weather patterns particularly complex. The country experiences a wide range of weather phenomena, from intense rainfall and cloudbursts to localized droughts and extreme temperatures. Climate change has further exacerbated these challenges, leading to more chaotic atmospheric conditions and an increased frequency of isolated heavy rainfall events and localized droughts. This unpredictability poses significant challenges, including the simultaneous risks of flooding and drought, which can severely impact agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
Among the least understood weather events in India are cloudbursts, thunderstorms, lightning, and squalls. These phenomena are not only difficult to predict but also have substantial consequences for communities. To address these issues, there is a critical need for in-depth knowledge of the physical processes occurring within and outside clouds, on the surface, in the upper atmosphere, over oceans, and in polar regions.
Mission Mausam aims to bridge this knowledge gap by focusing on high-frequency observations at the ground level and across the earth system. By improving both spatial and vertical resolutions, the mission seeks to enhance the ability to monitor dynamic earth systems effectively. Additionally, the mission aims to increase the horizontal resolution of NWP models from 12 kilometers to 6 kilometers. This enhancement will enable more precise forecasts, including at the panchayat level, with lead times extending up to 10 to 15 days.
The Two Phases of Mission Mausam
Mission Mausam will be implemented in two distinct phases over a five-year period. The first phase, which will run until March 2026, will focus on expanding the observation network and enhancing data collection capabilities. Key components of this phase include:
- Expansion of Observation Infrastructure: The first phase will see the addition of approximately 70 Doppler radars, high-performance computers, 10 wind profilers, and 10 radiometers. Currently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has installed 39 Doppler radars and has never set up a wind profiler. The new equipment will significantly augment the observational capacity and improve the accuracy of weather forecasts.
- Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE): This experiment will be conducted to determine the optimal number of observations required to enhance forecasting capabilities. The OSSE will play a crucial role in shaping the future direction of Mission Mausam by providing valuable insights into the data needs for effective weather prediction.
The second phase of Mission Mausam will build upon the foundation laid in the first phase by focusing on further advancements in observational capabilities. This phase will involve the addition of satellites and aircraft to provide more comprehensive and accurate data for weather forecasting and climate monitoring.
Expected Outcomes and Impact
Mission Mausam is expected to yield significant improvements in weather forecasting and climate monitoring. Among the anticipated outcomes are:
- Enhanced Forecast Accuracy: The mission aims to improve the accuracy of short to medium-range weather forecasts by 5 to 10 percent. This enhancement will lead to more reliable predictions and better preparedness for extreme weather events.
- Improved Air Quality Predictions: The mission will also focus on enhancing air quality prediction in major metropolitan areas by up to 10 percent. This improvement will contribute to better public health outcomes and more effective air quality management.
- Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities: Mission Mausam aims to improve the frequency of nowcasting, which provides very short-term predictions for rapidly changing weather events. The current nowcast frequency of three hours will be reduced to one hour, allowing for more timely and accurate updates on weather conditions.
- Panchayat-Level Forecasts: One of the most ambitious goals of Mission Mausam is to enable weather prediction at the panchayat level. This granularity will provide local communities with detailed and actionable weather information, empowering them to make informed decisions and take appropriate measures to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events.
Conclusion
Mission Mausam represents a bold and forward-thinking initiative that addresses the pressing need for improved weather forecasting and climate monitoring in India. By focusing on expanding observational infrastructure, enhancing data collection capabilities, and advancing forecasting models, the mission aims to significantly enhance the country’s ability to predict and respond to extreme weather events and the impacts of climate change.
As India continues to grapple with the challenges posed by a changing climate and increasingly complex weather patterns, Mission Mausam stands as a testament to the nation’s commitment to advancing scientific understanding and improving disaster preparedness. With its ambitious goals and strategic approach, the mission holds the promise of a more resilient and well-prepared India in the face of future climatic uncertainties.